The Nigerian naira has experienced a surge in value against the United States dollar in the parallel market, reportedly due to the influx of funds from political figures who allegedly expended large sums during the recent elections.
The Nigerian naira experienced a surge in value against the US dollar, as it rose to 735 naira per dollar on Friday, in contrast to its previous rate of 742 naira per dollar on Thursday as observed in the parallel market, commonly referred to as the dollar to naira black market.
According to a Dollar to Naira black market operator based in Lagos who spoke to our correspondent, the market is currently experiencing a decrease in demand, leading individuals to offer dollars for sale.
According to Johnson Chukwu, the Managing Director and CEO of Cowry Assets Management Limited, a portion of the inflow of dollars into the market could potentially be attributed to funds acquired by individuals during the recent elections. Several politicians resorted to using dollars for their transactions due to the unavailability of the naira.
According to his statement, individuals who do not possess a significant requirement for foreign currency holdings or transactions have access to these funds, resulting in their reintroduction into the market. The individual’s requirement pertains to the Nigerian currency, the naira. The current market trend involves the sale of dollars in excess of the average commercial demand, resulting in a temporary appreciation until the supply is depleted.
The current state of affairs indicates a decline in our foreign reserves. This implies that the discussion does not pertain to the accumulation of reserves or the provision of supply from authorised channels. The crux of the matter lies in the fact that the information lacks an official source and instead originates from alternative channels, namely individuals who possessed dollars but lacked any commercial transactional requirements.
According to data obtained from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), Nigeria’s external reserves have experienced a decline of 4.75 percent, falling from $37.20 billion as of January 12, 2023, to $35.43 billion as of April 12, 2023.
According to Muda Yusuf, who serves as the CEO of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise, there exists a possibility that optimistic projections may be made regarding the future performance of the naira subsequent to the conclusion of the present administration. To avoid incurring financial losses, it would be advisable to expeditiously sell at present.
The possibility of a reduction in the exchange rate is being considered in light of a potential improvement in the forex policy under a new administration. It is advisable to divest oneself of dollars held at a premium, should such a situation arise. In the event that a new administration were to introduce exchange rate convergence, it is plausible that the rate could experience an appreciation to either N700 or N650 per dollar. According to the interviewee, the driving force behind the phenomenon is rooted in expectations.
According to data from the FMDQ, the dollar was quoted at a rate of N462.83/$1 at the Investors and Exporters forex window, compared to the previous rate of N463.67/$1.
During the foreign exchange market auction on Thursday, the majority of currency dealers upheld their bids within the range of N460.00 (low) to N466.00 (high) per dollar.
On Thursday, the daily turnover of the forex market saw a significant increase of 54.16 percent, reaching a total of $131.33 million. This marks a notable surge from the previous day’s figure of $85.19 million, indicating a noteworthy shift in market activity.
Over the course of one month, the domestic currency experienced a decline in value against the United States dollar, with a decrease of 3.8 percent. The currency began the year at N737/$, and concluded the month of February 2023 at N755/$.
According to a report by Bismarck Rewane, the Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer of Financial Derivatives Company Limited, the recent surge in uncertainty within the Nigerian economy can be attributed to the severe cash crunch experienced by the naira.
Renowned economist, Rewane, has stated that Nigeria’s foreign exchange sources continue to be fragile, primarily due to subpar oil production caused by oil theft, capital flow reversal as a result of global monetary tightening, and an exchange rate premium in the parallel market.
The post-subsidy price of petrol is contingent upon the fluctuating dollar rates.
The Nigerian Economic Summit Group has projected that the official naira will experience a decline to N500 per dollar, as the country’s external reserves, which were recorded at $37.21 billion as of January 17, 2023, are expected to decrease to $34.9 billion by the conclusion of 2023.
The anticipated depletion of the official foreign exchange reserves is expected to be attributed to the Central Bank of Nigeria’s intervention in the foreign exchange market and a dearth of foreign exchange inflow towards the conclusion of 2023.
The nation’s foreign reserves experienced an 8.2 percent decrease, falling from $40.5 billion at the beginning of the year to $37.1 billion in 2022.
According to a report by FSDH research, the overnight rate at the money market segment remained steady at 19.00 percent on Thursday. However, the open repo rate experienced a slight increase of 0.04 percent, closing at 18.67 percent in comparison to the previous day’s rate of 18.63 percent.
The Nigeria Treasury bill secondary market concluded on a neutral note on Thursday, with the average yield across the curve remaining unchanged at 8.08 percent. The average yields across short-term, medium-term, and long-term maturities also remained steady at 4.03 percent, 6.93 percent, and 10.29 percent, respectively.
Nigerian Naira appreciated against its American counterpart on Friday in the Investors and Exporters (I&E), the black market, and the Peer-2-Peer (P2P) windows of the forex market.
The cryptocurrency P2P exchange’s exchange rate increased by 0.11% on Friday morning, trading at a low of N747/$1, up from N747.85/$1 at the same time on Wednesday.
The exchange rate at the investors and exporters (I&E) window, on the other hand, closed at N461.9/$1 on Wednesday, 11th April 2023, compared to N461.5/$1 in the previous trading session.
Despite a 28.5% increase in trading activity at the exchange, the official exchange rate fell by 0.1%. Notably, a total of $151.26 million was traded on Wednesday, compared to $117.63 million the previous day.
Nigeria’s external reserves, on the other hand, stood at $37.2 billion as of April 10, 2023, a 0.02% increase from the $37.19 billion recorded on December 9, 2022, indicating a fifth consecutive increase in the country’s reserve level.
The official market exchange rate closed at N461.9/$1 on Wednesday, 11th April 2023, up from N461.5/$1 in the previous trading session.
On Wednesday, April 11, 2023, the opening indicative rate was N460.25/$1.
Furthermore, an intra-day trading rate of N462/$1 was the highest recorded before it settled at N461.9/1, while it traded as low as N440/$1 during intra-day trading.
On Wednesday, a total of $151.26 million in FX value was traded at the I&E window, which is 28.59% more than the previous session’s total of $117.63 million.
Naira to dollar appreciates at the black market on 11th April 2023.
On Wednesday, 11th April 2023, the black market exchange rate between the naira and the US dollar increased to trade at an average of N745/$1. This represents a 0.94% increase over the previous day’s rate of N740.8/$1.
Furthermore, the exchange rate at the investors and exporters (I&E) window increased marginally on Tuesday, 10th April 2023, closing at N461.5/$1 compared to N461.67/$1 in the previous trading session.
The change in the official exchange rate comes after a 149.6% increase in forex turnover on Tuesday. At the window, a total of $117.63 million in FX value was traded, up from $47.13 million on Monday.
On the other hand, the cryptocurrency P2P exchange depreciated by 0.3% on Wednesday morning, trading at a low of N747.85/$1, down from N745.75/$1 at the same time on Tuesday.
Nigeria’s external reserves, on the other hand, stood at $37.2 billion as of April 9, 2023, a 0.09% increase from the $37.16 billion recorded on December 6, 2022, indicating a fourth consecutive increase in the country’s reserve level.