The current situation in Russia is posing a significant challenge to the president’s leadership, marking one of the most critical moments during his 23-year tenure. It is notable to observe the apparent loss of control he has experienced recently, which is a significant departure from his previous image of being in complete command.
It was a situation that had conflicting possibilities. The outcome was predictable, as the mishandling of the war resulted in a closed system that was resistant to criticism, and only the Kremlin could withstand such a disastrous situation. Some individuals have disappeared, fallen out of windows, or been poisoned in connection to Putin’s critics. Currently, the fifth largest army in the world is facing a weekend where there is a risk of fratricide, which could potentially help the Moscow elite avoid collapse.
Who is Yevgeny Prigozhin, the Wagner Group chief turned rebel?
It is often perceived that Putin is a skilled strategist, therefore some have interpreted the initial challenges from Yevgeny Prigozhin, the head of Wagner, as a potential tactic to keep Putin’s military leaders alert by having a trusted ally act as a vocal dissenter. However, the current situation where Putin has acknowledged that Rostov-on-Don, his primary military base, is not under his control, suggests that the Kremlin did not orchestrate this.
It is possible that Wagner’s units have been planning some of this for a while. There was a rebellion that seemed urgent and spontaneous, which occurred after an alleged air strike on a Wagner camp in the forest. The Russian Ministry of Defence has denied involvement. This happened shortly after Prigozhin gave a detailed explanation of the reasons for the war.
He made some accurate statements about the war’s start: NATO did not pose a threat to Russia, and there was no persecution of Russians. He suggested that Russia’s top officials were behind the invasion plan, rather than Putin himself. Wagner’s forces have rapidly regrouped and swiftly advanced towards Rostov. It may be challenging to do without prior planning or preparation.
It is possible that Prigozhin had the idea of influencing Putin to make a change in the leadership of a particular ministry of defence that the Wagner leader has been criticising openly for several months. However, Putin’s address on Saturday morning has changed that possibility. The current situation in Russia presents a difficult decision for the country’s elite. They must choose between supporting the struggling regime of the president or the dangerous Frankenstein-like entity that was created to carry out their illicit activities, but has now turned against them.
Russia’s military is experiencing a moment of clarity. In the past, Prigozhin’s criticisms may have resulted in his removal by special forces. But now he is moving towards Moscow with his sights set on it. Can you provide more context or clarify your question? Were they significantly affected by the war, or hesitant to confront their well-trained colleagues in Wagner?
Moscow has appeared weak multiple times this spring. The drone attack on the Kremlin in May may have raised concerns among the elite around Putin regarding the strength of the capital’s defences. Country houses were targeted by Ukrainian drones. Friday’s events among the Russian wealthy may provide clarity on Putin’s hold on power.
It is possible that Ukraine may view the timing of the insurrection within Russia’s ranks as significant. It has the potential to impact the war in Kyiv’s favour. Rebellions often fail to achieve their intended goals in Russia or anywhere else. In 1917, Tsar Nicholas II was removed from power in Russia, which led to the Bolshevik Revolution, the rise of Lenin, and eventually the Soviet Empire.
As this Jacobean drama of human frailty unfolds, it remains to be seen whether any improvements will result. It is uncertain whether Prigozhin will emerge victorious, and it is unclear whether the Kremlin’s control will be affected. A less powerful Putin may take actions that are not based on reason in order to demonstrate his power.
It’s possible that he may struggle to come to terms with the idea of losing in the upcoming months on the frontlines in Ukraine. It is possible that he is not fully aware of the level of dissatisfaction within his armed forces and may have limited control over their actions. The stability of Russia’s leadership is crucial for maintaining its status as a responsible nuclear power.
There is a possibility of things going wrong or right. It is difficult to predict whether Putin’s regime will regain the same level of control it had before. It is likely that there will be more changes and disruptions in the future.
